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Tuesday, 14 February 2012

Renewed Chinese uranium demand forecast

Mainland China continues to seek stakes in uranium deposits to support plans to have at lest 70GW of nuclear power generation capacity by 2020, according to David Talbot in his interview with Geoff Candy.  China has restated their pre-Fukushima nuclear objectives.

Twenty-five reactors are under construction, in addition to the fourteen already in service.  Chinese electricity consumption grew by 11.7% in 2011, according to The World Nuclear Association, which is significant given that China suffered an economic slowdown.  When China has a recession, GDP growth slows from 12% pa to 7% pa.

Japan has only three of their fifty five reactors operating at the moment, which has reduced uranium demand by 21mppa.  Germany's nuclear shut down would reduce global demand by approximately 4mppa.

Talbot expects global uranium demand to increase from 180mppa to approximately 240-280mppa in 2020.

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