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Wednesday, 8 February 2012

China's economic dominance is not guaranteed

Chinese commercial acumen contrasting with western over-indebtedness, and the demise of western currencies, will not guarantee China's eventual economic dominance.  China's gathering might over the longer term will not come without setbacks on the way, for at least three reasons.  Political risk will increase as a young and unwise minority born into great wealth increasingly flaunt their huge inherited riches.  Much wealth has been amassed through favourable Chinese Communist Party connections.

As wealth disparity grows, popular resentment will continue to spread, fuelled by continuing unjust evictions of villagers for large property developments promoted by provincial Communist Party officials.  The Chinese Communist Party Central Committee will not cede power to democratic forces without a serious battle.  History has shown on every occasion that the CCP is prepared to turn its own forces against its own people, and kill them.

And the committee system has not always made the best strategic decisions for China's long term interests.  Like all governments, the central committee is fallible.

And thirdly, sustainable economic dominance requires constant innovation.  The mainland Chinese education system does not foster creative new thinking because it discourages free thought.  Totalitarian regimes also tend to create a despairing collective psychology, less motivated to create and contribute to the wider good.  Intellectuals feel safer growing geraniums than sharing constructive thought.  Generations will be required to shift collective psychology to harness creative thought for the national interest in the way the USA does.

For an excellent report about young wealthy Chinese mainlanders, see Stephen McDonell's "The Ka-Ching! Dynasty" on ABC TV's Foreign Correspondent, which I acknowledge.  Also follow the Wukan villagers' dispute with authorities.

1 comment:

  1. The agenda is not for any single nation to 'dominate' as in the pattern of the past.

    China knows this, and it is one to which she subscribes. China will 'cool' down any condition that would put her in this situation.

    However, if her system proves a roll model for others to follow - at least in basic terms, then
    that is fine. But to dominate by design, and pressure - most definitely NO!.

    Nor will she permit herself to be used as such a 'tool' as did Britain, and later, as at present - the USA.