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Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Equity bull market foundations forming

The impending Greek default is possibly laying the foundations for another equities bull market, argues Jim Sinclair in this interview, who predicts that Greek default will probably be deemed a "credit event" and not a default, to protect five major US banks against bankruptcy, who
hold an imprudently large 97% of the credit default swap (CDS) insurance over very risky debt, including failed sovereign debt.  Large scale quantitative easing (QE, which is money printing) will inject liquidity to protect those who will suffer "haircut" losses, and whose CDS insurance can not be exercised to cover those losses, because of the expected failure to recognise defaults as defaults.

Large scale QE liquidity underpins equities bubbles, as it did in the Weimar Republic.

This bubble, if it forms, like all others, will come to an end.  "Buy and hold" investment strategies are no longer applicable.  This article describes how I exit my trades.

I acknowledge Ellis Martin and Jim Sinclair for their interview.

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