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Sunday, 27 November 2011

Euro disintegration seems inevitable

The Euro is a currency out of fiscal control. The Euro will likely come apart well before any Euro fiscal control can be implemented. Greek protestors, waving Nazi flags, won’t surrender fiscal control to a centralised Europe. Neither would Greece, Germany or other nations within the near future. Survival of the Euro requires centralized European fiscal control, but the surrender of national fiscal responsibilities would require years of negotiation and referenda.

Greece won’t agree to spend less than it earns for fear of social destabilisation and political turmoil. Germany won’t bail out Greece a third time. Germany won’t agree to Euro money printing (quantitative easing) for fear of Weimar hyperinflation, social destabilisation, political turmoil, dictatorship and war. Germany can't leave the Euro becuase its exports would collapse.  Germany can’t bail out Italy: their debt is far too big. Eurobonds won’t solve the crisis. Borrowing to enlarge the EFSF bail-out fund only further compounds the debt problem. Most European nations including Germany have violated agreed European fiscal limits. European fiscal control is too difficult to achieve in the short time required.

The German bond failure last week confirms failure of confidence now in the Euro currency.  The negative sentiment is not towards Germany:  it is towards Germay's currency. 

Time is pressing. If an event triggers Euro disintegration, the Euro will probably collapse very rapidly, within a period of twenty four hours or so, or during a weekend, because financial markets are now globally electronically instantaneously interconnected. Trillions can move within seconds, vaporizing a currency.

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