Portuguese bond yields remain at more than twice sustainable levels: 19.3%, 22% and 16.3% for two, five and ten year maturities, far in excess of the 7% levels which trigger alarm bells for Greece and Italy. On top of Italy's and Greece's needs for significant new borrowings, stabilisation of Portuguese debt will demand more of Europe's bail-out funds, further locking in the likelihood of massive global money printing, the ultimate effect of which will be very high inflation after the velocity of money increases again.
To trade forex, gold, commodities, the stock market, and futures you need to be aware of how international strategic motivations affect market sentiment. Prices are driven by "groupthink" perceptions of the unknowable future. News is incomplete or manipulated. We try here to penetrate beneath the spin to understand how strategic interests, international politics, and strategic mistakes affect future sentiment, to forecast price trends.
Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Equity bull market foundations forming
The impending Greek default is possibly laying the foundations for another equities bull market, argues Jim Sinclair in this interview, who predicts that Greek default will probably be deemed a "credit event" and not a default, to protect five major US banks against bankruptcy, who
Second Greek bail-out now too small
Greece now needs 145B euros to stay solvent through 2014, 15B more than the second bail-out package, according to Der Spiegel's article.
Friday, 27 January 2012
Stay alert Friday evenings for euro announcement
If Greece were to leave the Euro, or if a major decision were made which affected the Euro, the announcement would likely be made after the Friday close of markets in the USA.
Reasons against gold standard
There are calls for a return to the gold standard, to ensure that money retains its value. Removal of the gold standard freed governments to print as much
currency as they wished.
Thursday, 26 January 2012
Hedge funds stand to benefit from failed Greek debt negotiations
This seems to be running out of control. Will the US cover any hedge fund owners should their "bets" lose? See Der Spiegel's article, which I acknowledge.
Greece likely to receive permanent bail-out, relieved of all obligations for financial prudence
If you bail someone out twice, they don't need to care anymore. Greece can count on more bail-outs, indefinitely, should Greece want. Europe's granting Greece a second, larger bail-out a year after the first bailout failed, and after it was revealed that Greece's national accounts had been falsified, relieved Greece of any serious incentive to reduce spending to less than income, and for financial prudence. That second bail-out now appears to have failed. Greece "struggles" to meet fiscal commitments agreed for bail-outs. The US will likely prevent Greek default at any cost, because
Wednesday, 25 January 2012
Second Greek bail-out fails
"The
IMF has concluded the €130bn bail-out plan for Greece agreed in October
will no longer enable Athens to get its €350bn debt pile down to a
sustainable level by 2020 – the plan’s principal goal", according to this Financial Times article.
European fiscal agreement "torpedoed"
Most of Europe wants Germany to contribute even more funds to rescue
those countries which can't repay their huge debts, but they don't seem
to want to agree that they should spend less than their income.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)