In working to protect the Euro with financial instruments to insure troubled countries against default, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) has explicitly identified the risk that the Euro could break up, or cease to be lawful, according to the Financial Times.
To trade forex, gold, commodities, the stock market, and futures you need to be aware of how international strategic motivations affect market sentiment. Prices are driven by "groupthink" perceptions of the unknowable future. News is incomplete or manipulated. We try here to penetrate beneath the spin to understand how strategic interests, international politics, and strategic mistakes affect future sentiment, to forecast price trends.
Friday, 16 December 2011
Wednesday, 14 December 2011
"Gold bull market on last legs - Gartman"
For my refutation of "Gold bull market on last legs - Gartman", see this recording. Gold may well decline to $1475 as he predicts, but a 20% fall is only one criterion for a bear market as he claims: more criteria are required to confirm a bear market. Gold's 30% fall during 2008 did not end the bull market.
Chinese gold imports increase
Chinese demand for physical gold increases with widening prosperity across the population whose culture has valued gold highly for millennia. In September 2011 China started installing 2000 gold bullion vending machines. I believe the central committee has a policy to encourage popular accumulation of private gold holdings to complement central bank and other government holdings, to strengthen China's gold backing, and their global economic and political clout, and to
Monday, 12 December 2011
Eurozone banking crisis unresolved
The Euro banking crisis remains unsolved according to "Eurozone banking system on the edge of collapse". The last crisis summit only produced another plan. Gold is being sold heavily again, suggesting possible co-ordinated central bank selling to contrive confidence in the Euro. I acknowledge JSMineset. Join us for Free Live Stock Market Briefings.
Legislation allowed MF Global client funds to be "invested" in European bond derivatives
A sequence of US regulatory relaxations permitted US client funds to be held in progressively more risky investments than US treasuries. See: Tiny Rule Change at Heart of MF Global Failure: William D. Cohan.
Sunday, 11 December 2011
Germany's latest dilemma
Either Germany: leaves the Euro currency; or accepts Euro money printing with serious inflationary consequences. Euro money printing now appears inevitable.
Central bank gold sale announcement retracted
Co-ordinated central bank selling of gold on Thursday, 8 December, to support the Euro and US dollar, has been reported. That report, by Deutsche Boerse owned MNI, has been deleted from the internet. I acknowledge Goldseek Radio for this news. See "[MNI] retracts report about central bank gold sales". Go here to understand the gold price in terms of currencies.
Saturday, 10 December 2011
Germany's EU summit backdown raises many questions
Germany has submitted to US demands that sovereign debt holders be immune to "haircuts" if sovereign debt be restructured. Private sector involvement in debt restructuring is now officially over, according to "EU Summit Clarifies Fiscal Union...". Haircut risk has been transferred away from sovereign debt holders, banks, and bond insurers.
EU blueprint can't yet solve Euro crisis
The latest EU crisis summit produced only a blueprint which can't yet guarantee the tighter fiscal union announced. Neither the EU, nor the summit attendees, has authority to "embed" fiscal or deficit controls in "national constitutions", as announced. The intended tighter fiscal union can only be achieved after significant constitutional, legislative, political or cultural changes in each and every Euro-zone nation. And it will take much more than a Greek constitutional amendment to reduce entrenched corruption and inefficiencies, and to guarantee Greek fiscal responsibility. I acknowledge Deutsche Boerse Group's article.
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