Investing in ETFs, ensure that the fund owns the underlying asset outright, and does not create synthetic holdings constructed from derivatives. Regularly check that the ETF price accurately tracks the underlying asset price. Type "USO:$WTIC" or "GLD:$GOLD" into StockCharts.com to check. I acknowledge Chris Waltzek of GoldSeek for this advice.
To trade forex, gold, commodities, the stock market, and futures you need to be aware of how international strategic motivations affect market sentiment. Prices are driven by "groupthink" perceptions of the unknowable future. News is incomplete or manipulated. We try here to penetrate beneath the spin to understand how strategic interests, international politics, and strategic mistakes affect future sentiment, to forecast price trends.
Friday, 9 December 2011
The great re-hypothecation credit bubble
Banks and other financial institutions might now own MF Global clients' funds, through re-hypothecation loopholes, which have leveraged the European debt crisis fourfold.
MF Global failure impedes US farming
Some farmers are unable to buy seed and feed because their funds have been frozen by MF Global's bankruptcy trustee: see the CBS news clip or the Chicago Tribune article.
Futures broker slams CME for destroying confidence in system integrity
Futures broker Ann Barnhardt describes how the CME's failure to act as the clearing house backstop amplified the destructive MF Global aftermath, and destroyed confidence in the futures market leading her to close her brokerage. Barnhardt claims the CME did not fulfil fiduciary duties to ensure counterparty obligations were met.
Thursday, 8 December 2011
PIGS acronym ensures Euro's demise
One can't demand fiscal discipline of those one labels PIGS. The "wit" does not outweigh the insult of the expression.
How the gold price is fixed
The price of gold is being influenced by: declining confidence in the Euro, the global reserve currency and other western fiat currencies; gold's traditional role as reliable money; and growing Chinese popular wealth. I found this article "How gold is ‘fixed' and what drives the real price" interesting. Disclaimer: I am not in a position to verify the accuracy of any of the assertions made in the article. I acknowledge Mineweb for this article.
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For an overview of the fundamentals of the gold price, viewed as a currency, see this recording. Euro needs confidence trick, or, "You Can Kiss Me on a Friday"
No EU summit meeting, nor Merkel or Sarkozy, can guarantee that Greece will actually implement the tighter financial controls needed to save the Euro. Market confidence needs to be manipulated into trusting Greek national finances. That sentiment will depend upon collective belief about future Greek behaviour, as opposed to the actual reality of Greek behaviour. Shifting global belief is always a mammoth task.
Friday, 2 December 2011
Don’t let another MF Global ruin you!
In trading futures, forex, gold, CFDs or commodities, you must strictly control all risk of potential loss. This article describes how I minimise my trading risk.
Thursday, 1 December 2011
Euro survival rests on too many dilemmas
Either: every Euro-zone nation agrees to surrender some national fiscal responsibility; or the Euro will disintegrate. Survival of the Euro requires complete market confidence in the individual fiscal responsibility of every Euro-zone nation and its sovereign debt. That dilemma ostensibly ensures Euro dissolution. But there is a greater dilemma.
German bonds are the test of Euro currency confidence
The test of successful IMF support for Europe will be measured by German bond yields. Re-established confidence in the Euro currency will be apparent only after Germany can again borrow at traditionally low yields, and with successful bond sales.
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