The ten year performance history of emerging markets is summarised nicely in this "Periodic table of emerging markets", courtesy of US Global Markets, who contend that performance varies over time in consistence with "reversion to the mean".
To trade forex, gold, commodities, the stock market, and futures you need to be aware of how international strategic motivations affect market sentiment. Prices are driven by "groupthink" perceptions of the unknowable future. News is incomplete or manipulated. We try here to penetrate beneath the spin to understand how strategic interests, international politics, and strategic mistakes affect future sentiment, to forecast price trends.
Saturday, 31 March 2012
Wednesday, 28 March 2012
Saturday, 24 March 2012
Money printing can not cease
Massive money printing, in the order of tens of trillions of dollars, can not cease because of the financially destructive psychological impact that would have on market sentiment, according to Jim Sinclair.
Friday, 23 March 2012
Problems with a gold standard
The chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, Ben Bernanke, enumerated the problems with a gold standard, should one be considered as a replacement for the currently deteriorating western fiat currency system.
Thursday, 22 March 2012
China tightens totalitarian control
China has ordered lawyers to pledge their allegiance to the Chinese Communist Party, according to Reuters.
Wednesday, 21 March 2012
SWIFT's act of war will damage US dollar
Jim Sinclair's interview with Ellis Martin explains the consequences of SWIFT's selective exclusion of nations and banks from the international settlement system, and elaborates the ideas reported in February's posting here.
US exempts Japan, ten EU nations from Iran oil sanctions
The US has exempted eleven nations from Iranian oil sanctions, in an acknowledgement of western allies' energy needs.
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
ECB representative can not explain why Irish should pay billions for European banks
The European Central Bank's Klaus Masuch was left speechless unable to answer Irish journalist Vincent Browne's repeatedly restated question of why the Irish people should pay billions for unguaranteed bonds to support European financial institutions which have no bearing upon the Irish people, in a press conference video.
Saturday, 10 March 2012
CDS bond insurance will cover Greek haircuts
The ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) has declared that a Greek sovereign debt "credit event" has occurred, clearing the way for CDS (credit default swap) and other insurance instruments to be called upon to make good bondholders' losses.
Seabed mining progresses
Nautilus' revolutionary seabed mine continues to progress, 1600 metres beneath the Bismarck sea.
Thursday, 8 March 2012
US Fed focuses on printing more money
The US Federal Reserve continues to consider printing more US money. Despite "spinning" the announcement to create the perception that it would not contribute to inflation, the fact remains that money printing is inflation.
Wednesday, 7 March 2012
European Central Bank facing "sizeable" possible losses
Should Greece default, the European Central Bank (ECB) would face "sizeable" losses of 177 billion euros, which would amount to over 200% of the ECB's capital base, according to the International Institute of Finance (IIF) in a Financial Times report. And on top of that, the ECB's need to buy more risky European sovereign debt would increase.
Tuesday, 6 March 2012
Gold mining stocks will be utility stocks
Jim Sinclair argues that gold mining companies will become high yielding utility stocks in the future.
Icelanders consider replacing krona with Canadian dollar
Some Icelandic business leaders have proposed that Iceland adopt the Canadian dollar as their national currency, to improve stability and ease capital flows. It is significant that the proposal was not to adopt the US dollar, which has traditionally been the global reserve currency, but whose status is now diminished.
Friday, 2 March 2012
Commodities price inflation likely
"It remains uncertain how the banks will use the cheap money" provided by the European Central Bank (ECB), which has lent 530 billion euros to European banks, according to Der Spiegel.
ISDA conflict of interest
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) is responsible for determining whether or not losses from failed bonds are covered by insurance. It is surprising to note that some voting ISDA members appear to be the sellers of that insurance, and therefore would have a conflict of interest.
Greece fails to implement required reforms for second bail-out
Negative market sentiment towards the euro currency is likely to be amplified by polarising European disunity. Some European finance ministers are not satisfied that all Greece's
political party leaders are fully behind the reforms, according to
Reuters.
Greek bondholder losses uninsurable
The ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) voted unanimously that no "credit event" has occurred with respect to the Hellenic Republic.
Thursday, 1 March 2012
Gold's relationship with the US dollar
I find Julian Phillips' explanation of gold's historic relationship with the US dollar most informative.
Gold price slammed down by $100
Some speculate that often a sharp fall in the gold price reflects orchestrated central bank selling to manipulate the gold price downwards, to support fiat currencies, and to foster positive global financial sentiment. A report about central bank gold price manipulation has been deleted from the internet.
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